It has been quite an eventful week, with plenty of talk about the CBI raise to 600K, crackdown on valuation reports and more. I do not have anything really to add apart from what I shared in the whatsapp chats earlier this week, so I will not add much to the notes for this week. I will copy and paste notes from whatsapp chat below.
Just a few points in a busy time.
1- Rental market experiences seasonal sluggishness. That will likely pick up soon.
2- Airbnb legislation will be enacted from January 1, 2024. In our last zoom session of the year, on December 27th, I will give a complete rundown of this, including my predictions about Airbnb as well as predictions for 2024 real estate in Turkey (that is always a perilous task!!!)
3- Local real estate market is moribund, being many years since I have witnessed such low demand. This is definitely NOT the time to be selling. I expect there will be no relief in sight til the Spring at minimum. It is being reflected in prices to some degree, as well as in negotiations. The properties that were quite over-priced are the ones that go down the most, so expect most decrease there, but much less so on those priced in accordance with current market conditions. We have seen some of the over-priced ones lingering on the market for up to a year or more!!! Let it linger, I suppose. Developers also seem to be in an engaging mood, so it can be a good time to scoop something up there. Unlike many private sellers, they, de facto, have to sell. Being purely a numbers game, again unlike private sellers and the emotional roller coaster, a good developer gets out the calculator and moves forward on that basis. If their costs for carrying additional stock for 6 or 9 months more are too much, they have to slash.
4- to the Airbnb experts out there….can anyone help me find out how many total Airbnbs there are in Istanbul? I have not had much luck finding that info. According to Nalan, we are seeing more competition from furnished apartments entering the market. Maybe some re-balancing will occur there.
5- For the next 6 weeks, we will only be looking at properties in Istanbul, Izmir and Kocaeli. Istanbul because we always do, and the other 2 cities due to the value proposition.
6- We are working on several CBI ready made packages and will be forwarding to interested people this week.
7- Again, although nothing is certain about possible CBI changes, we are going with the hunch that cut off date for completed purchases may be somewhere around the end of January. For anyone really lost on the CBI process, contact me directly. It is entirely possible to do within a 6 week time frame but it will require engagement.
NOTES from WhatsApp chats in past week for those who missed them.
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: İm hearing several reports on this. There May be something behind it. Will update
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: No official publication but rumours abounding
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: Well, Ive talked to enough people to make me think it is – with a more than moderate degree of certainty – an eventuality in the New Year the CBI will increase. Please reach out to me if you really want to get the CBI done and we can give you priority. A functioning Turkish bank account and a POA with lawyer are going to be important steps. In the past, there was a 30 to 45 day window from publication of changes til implementation, so there is no need to panic if someone is in the middle of CBI. However, if you do not have POA and bank account, we might want to assume that the clock is ticking rather more loudly than before. None of the above is anywhere near 100%, but the likelihood in my opnion, is how I have phrased it above.
[18:04, 2023-12-10] I will post some zoom sessions this week to engage with people who seek guidance on this subject
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: In addition, I will put together some CBI package purchases. I can discuss the shape of those in the zoom sessions this week. Good, safe plays, but perhaps not super sexy. Nonetheless, defensive and prudent. These might be a good option for those who are motivated by CBI, want to protect their capital, ensure liquidity on exit and who as yet do not have CBI papers in order.
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/scrutiny-tightened-over-citizenship-related-estate-sales-188355
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: This is interesting and its repercussions are immediately being felt. İn all of the past 2 ör 3 years l can only think of 2 ör 3 that came under the mark we were expecting, and öne was for technical reason related to the deed. However, we have had 2 in the past week that we are having to contest as they are 10% under the sales price, and these are on true bargain deals that are well under market price. İm hearing same issues with other agencies.
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: We are pushing back, but it looks to cause a bit of a headache in the short term
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: Will discuss ramifications further in todays zoom
[18:04, 2023-12-10] Nalan: We are gathering more information from several valuations companies. There really iş a lot going on behind the scenes and the whole process is becoming very cumbersome. Therefore, we can anticipate difficulties and irregularities with the reports, at least in the near term.
Properties will be distributed in meeting…
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